Source: Financial World Network
Tesla recently started to deliver Model3/Y models equipped with domestic motors. The power and torque of the new models have been increased, and the price remains unchanged. The cost advantage of the domestic supply chain is prominent. Thanks to the improvement of supply chain capabilities, Tesla Motors has realized the technological evolution from asynchronous to permanent magnet, from round wire to flat wire, and empowered model upgrades. Under the trend of localization of Tesla motors, we believe that the domestic motor supply chain will fully benefit. Taking into account the advantages of China's electric supply chain, and the acceleration of electrification under the stricter European emission regulations, the domestic cost-effective electric drive capacity is expected to be exported, realizing a global replacement.
Localized motors improve performance, and the cost advantage of the domestic supply chain is prominent.
Tesla recently began delivering Model 3 and Model Y models equipped with domestically-made motors. The domestic production rate has further increased. Compared with the previous models equipped with imported motors, the motor power and torque of the new models have been improved. The largest increase in power is the rear motor of the ModelY four-wheel drive long-endurance version, reaching 22%. In addition, the standard endurance version of ModelY with only one motor on the rear axle accelerates from 100 kilometers to 5.6 seconds, which is only 1.9 seconds slower than the four-wheel drive version, indicating that the domestically-made motor after the technical upgrade has strong performance. While the price of each model remains unchanged, the cost advantage of the domestic supply chain is prominent.
Tesla motor technology evolution: supply chain capacity enhancement empowers model upgrades.
1) Asynchronous to permanent magnet: In 2012, Tesla ModelS chose the induction motor due to the supply chain level and cost constraints. With the maturity of high-power permanent magnet motor technology and maturity of the supply chain, Model 3, which went on the market in 2017, began to turn to permanent magnet motors.
2) Dual asynchronous to asynchronous + permanent magnet: In terms of dual motor models, from the earliest ModelS with dual induction motors to Model3 steering induction + permanent magnet dual motors, the advantages of the two types of motors are combined to complement each other while taking into account performance. And cost.
3) From round wire to flat wire: The slot full rate of the flat wire motor is 20%-30% higher than that of the round wire motor, and the copper consumption is reduced, which is in line with the development trend of light weight, high power and high efficiency of new energy vehicle motors. We infer that this domestic motor upgrade has adopted the flat wire scheme.
The motor production capacity of Tesla's Shanghai plant matches the production capacity of the entire vehicle. It is expected that the export market will expand in the future.
It is estimated that by the end of 2021, Tesla's Shanghai plant will have a production capacity of 550,000 vehicles, and Model3/Y will be 250,000/300,000 vehicles respectively. Calculated according to the extreme conditions of ModelY all dual-motor versions, the total demand for corresponding motors is 850,000 sets. The electric motor production line of Tesla's Shanghai plant has recently reached production and is divided into EDU1/2/3 phases. At present, EDU1/2 have reached production, with a production capacity of 600,000 units. At the end of the year, the total production capacity was 800,000 sets of motors. According to the electric drive of 10,000 yuan per unit, Tesla's domestic electric drive market space is 8 billion yuan. It is estimated that with the production of 800,000 sets of motor production capacity in Phase II, Tesla's domestic motor supply chain supply may exceed expectations in the future. In addition to domestic new vehicle production capacity, considering the cost advantage of the domestic supply chain, electric drive systems are also expected to be exported to Tesi Pull European and American factories.
Under the trend of localization of Tesla motors, high-quality suppliers in the domestic motor supply chain have benefited.
The value of magnets, structural parts (housing + motor shaft), iron core (silicon steel sheet), and enameled wire accounted for the top four in the motor, 29%/25%/18%/17%, and the total value of the motor accounted for 90%. The main suppliers include: Jingda Co., Ltd. (enameled wire), Precise Forging Technology (motor shaft), Xusheng Co., Ltd. (housing), and Longsheng Technology (iron core). Under the trend of localization of Tesla motors, we believe that the supply chain has fully benefited: 1) The logic of increasing volume, import substitution to global substitution, Tesla's domestic motor supply chain is gradually reaching production and starting to increase volume. In the future, the domestic cost-effectiveness is high and new electric drive production capacity It is expected to export, and the market will continue to expand; 2) Demonstration effect: Tesla's order endorsement, it is expected that suppliers will be able to open up new customers and will further increase the volume.
Risk factors:
The sales of Tesla models fell short of expectations, the localization of Tesla fell short of expectations, the penetration of flat wire motors fell short of expectations, and the orders from customers of Tesla's supply chain target companies fell short of expectations.
Source: CITIC Securities
